Annex XIV: Market Deployment of Hybrid & Electric Vehicles: Lessons Learned

Operating Agent:

Tom Turrentine, Ph.D.
Director
PHEV Research Center
Institute of Transportation Studies
University of California, at Davis
Davis, CA 95616 USA

Voice - 831-685-3635
tturrentine@ucdavis.edu

Research Goals

The last 20 years saw a coming and going of new electric vehicle models and EV manufacturers in diverse markets such as Japan, USA and Europe, with diverse industrial conditions such as Germany and Switzerland, and diverse regulatory context such as the Zero Emission Vehicle process in California or projects such as Mendrisio in Switzerland or Gothenburg in Sweden.

Small EV start-ups launch with huge optimism, but without enough financial backup, the cars are technically promising, but the production has never exceeded a small number of pre-serial vehicles (examples: SAM by Cree Switzerland, Hotzenblitz Germany). The cars are technically enough reliable for pioneer customers but not necessarily for a mass market (examples: TH!NK Norway/Ford USA, SOLEC France/Switzerland, City-el Denmark/Germany). Some of these vehicles are still manufactured with limited market success but most of the manufacturers/ vehicle makes disappeared. In certain cases major automotive manufacturers have begun EV projects with good financial backup, the vehicles are technically good but the batteries fail, the production has never been started or has been stopped (examples: BMW E1 Germany, Ford Ecostar USA, Audi Duo, VW Golf City Stromer, FIAT Panda). In other cases the vehicles and batteries are mainly technically good but an internal strategic decision stops the manufacturing (examples: Honda EV plus, GM Impact). Finally, in a few other cases, the vehicles and batteries are technically good but the customer did not buy them in satisfying numbers, expectations?) (examples: EVs by PSA, Renault).

With the concern about climate change, the emergence of hybrid success in the market, and new plug-in hybrid designs, it appears that we are entering a new phase of electric vehicle startups and OEM electric cars and market planning. Renault, Mitsubishi, Nissan, and Smart/Daimler are investigating market opportunities and demonstrating City EVs. There are some new EV companies from the high tech community, like Wright, Zenn, and Tesla and some Chinese auto companies are also investigating. So it appears that we are moving to a second era of EVs.

What lessons were learned in past deployments of electric vehicles that are of value in this new era? The incomplete list of "cases" above results in a lot of open questions about the experiences from this past era.

• What are the best company conditions to develop and commercialize EVs? A dedicated start-up with good financial backing, but without legacy and competing product investments or is the only firm capable of developing a reliable vehicle, wide distribution and engendering consumer confidence a major automotive company.
• How do policies, such as ZEV mandate or incentives and other promotional activities shape R&D, product commitments and deployment decisions in small and large firms?
• How did the charging infrastructure affect market opportunities?
• Was dependence on expensive components not produced by the vehicle manufacturer a show stopper? (Storage systems like batteries or fuel cells).
• Did automotive engineers have fixed ideas about car design and consumers, and not much interest in smaller markets? Are the ideas of specialists in composite materials, lightweight design, in electronics too radical for the conservative car market?
• Was the problem simply that range and recharging of EVs limits the market so severely that EVs cannot compete despite other attractive features like environmental benefits and drive feel?
• Was the problem simply that the batteries have limited design to small vehicles that limit their practicality for cargo, passenger loads and safety?

Answers can be found in questioning the manufacturers, salespeople, regulators, industry historians, technicians that have been involved in vehicle and battery technology development for decades. The real strength of our analysis will derive from comparing experiences, stories and lessons across international and regional contexts.

Additional Information

• Work Plan
• Research Schedule
• Financial Structure
• Annex XIV Meeting Announcement (20kb pdf)